Below is a chart of career predictions that ran in a 32 day series on predictive analytics with football personnel leading up to the start of 2013 NFL Training Camp as a marketing tool on personnel analysis with football analytics. The focus was on first and second year players, thus the 2012 and 2013 draft classes. There is an original article that is tied to each prediction made.
The timeframe of the prediction typically is a 3-5 year window, basically the length of a rookie contract. New developments have been made in 2015 to for even more accuracy and would have overturned two of the interior OL projections below. The only public 2014 NFL Prediction is related to LB Anthony Hitchens, due to the huge contrast between draft analysts and what I found in my research. You can contact Braden here if you are interested in personnel studies and analysis on draft prospects or free agents.
The table includes prediction date (when the article on them went up), result (Correct, Incorrect, Trending Up, Trending Down, TBD), and when I updated the notes on their status. The last update of the notes was on June 27, 2015.
| Prediction Date | Prediction | Result | Notes | Note Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/19/2013 | Pro Bowl for Nick Foles and/or Matt Barkley | Correct | Foles was Pro Bowl MVP on January 26, 2014. The Eagles are now 3-0 under his reign this season. | 9/25/2014 |
| 7/7/2013 | Justin Pugh will eventually have to move inside to guard | Correct | After struggles as an OT, Pugh has been moved to LG this offseason. | 6/27/2015 |
| 6/18/2013 | Luke Willson will be a starting Tight End within 3 years | Correct | Luke Willson started 7 games as a rookie. As a backup TE out of Rice and a 5th Round Pick, it is a great start to his career. Seattle hits many homeruns with late picks and undrafted free agents. | 9/25/2014 |
| 7/6/2013 | Desmond Trufant will be an elite corner (multiple pro bowls and WR1 assignments) | Correct | Trufant was rated as the #7 CB accoring to PFF. This is amazing as a rookie CB. | 9/25/2014 |
| 7/16/2013 | Jordan Reed will be an NFL starter if injury is not a long term issue | Correct | Jordan Reed continues to battle health issues. That said, he was the #7 graded TE by PFF in 2013 on only 384 snaps, thus showing he played exceptional football when he has been able to get on the field. | 9/25/2014 |
| 6/29/2013 | Aaron Mellete won't survive to second contract | Correct | Mellete was released on June 17, 2014 | 9/25/2014 |
| 7/21/2014 | Anthony Hitchens will have success as an ILB | Trending Up | Anthony Hitchens was forced into action with the Dallas Cowboys battling injuries. Anthony Hitchens had 10 solo tackles, 3 assists, and a couple of critical clutch plays to secure a win in his first start at MLB. | 9/25/2014 |
| 7/18/2013 | Geno Smith career QB rating at mid 70s or below and not long term answer for Jets | Trending Up | Geno Smith sits at a 71.5 QB Rating after two seasons as the starter for the New York Jets. | 6/27/2015 |
| 7/11/2013 | Multiple Pro Bowls for Jamie Collins | Trending Up | Jamie Collins has now solidified himself as one of the best LBs in the NFL. He is the 3rd highest graded ILB by PFF in 2014. | 6/27/2015 |
| 7/13/2013 | Cornelius Washington is unlikely to pass 4 sacks in a season | Trending Up | Washington has 1 sack in two seasons. | 6/27/2015 |
| 7/5/2013 | Terron Armstead will be a good starting LT | Trending Up | Armstead had both a positive score by PFF in Pass and Run blocking. He needs to carry this momentum forward into his second year as a starter. | 6/27/2015 |
| 7/17/2013 | Stedman Bailey will be an NFL starter and have success | Trending Up | Bailey became a starter by the end of the 2013 NFL Season. He was the highest graded PFF WR on the Rams in 2013. Unfortunately, he has been suspended for the majority of the 2014 season so far. | 9/25/2014 |
| 6/27/2013 | Mike Glennon compared to Eli Manning, Career 82.7 QB Rating at the time | Trending Up | Mike Glennon has a career QB Rating of 83.7 after two NFL seasons. That is within 1 point of his comparison at the time the comparison was made. This is 1 point closer than after last offseason. | 6/27/2015 |
| 6/26/2013 | Shamarko Thomas will be a long term starting safety | Trending Up | Shamarko Thomas was the highest graded defensive player on the Steelers defense in the 2014 preseason, but then only received 2 snaps in the regular season. With him now on top of the depth chart, this is his chance to shine. | 6/27/2015 |
| 7/3/2013 | Trevardo Williams will have more sacks than Sam Montgomery | Trending Up | Williams holds a 1 to 0 lead over Montgomery despite being drafted a round later. Based on opportunity and talent, Williams is in the driver seat to hold this lead. | 6/27/2015 |
| 6/21/2013 | Quinton Patton will outperform A.J. Jenkins | Trending Up | A.J. Jenkins holds a 9 to 6 lead with a 17 to 10 game lead and an additional season. OTA reports has Patton as a potential WR to take a step forward while Jenkins remains on the deeper end of the Cowboys WR depth chart. Jenkins has already been cut multiple times. | 6/27/2015 |
| 7/15/2013 | Kenjon Barner to have a career rush average at 4.2 +-.1 per rush | Trending Down | Kenjon only has 8 carries to his career so far at under 2 yards per carry. He may not get another opportunity to add more carries. | 9/25/2014 |
| 6/30/2013 | Multiple Pro Bowls for Brian Schwenke | Trending Down | A new 2015 development that is a great tool for analyzing interior OL would have predicted a different result. This is perfect example of self grading and improvement. | 6/27/2015 |
| 6/25/2013 | Jonathan Cooper will be a Pro Bowl guard | Trending Down | A new 2015 development that is a great tool for analyzing interior OL would have predicted a different result. This is perfect example of self grading and improvement. | 6/27/2015 |
| 5/2/2013 | Josh Boyce to break Patriots curse of bad WR drafting | Trending Down | Boyce only had 10 snaps in 2014 despite the majority of the Patriots WRs scoring in the red by PFF. Boyce remains a talented option that needs opportunity. | 6/27/2015 |
| 6/22/2013 | Tobais Palmer will make the 53 man roster and get a second NFL contract | Incorrect | Palmer did not make the 53, but he spent time on the 53 man roster. He has dealt with injury, and would need an opportunity to be a returner first and can develop as a WR. | 9/25/2014 |
| 7/1/2013 | Rishard Matthews will become an NFL starter | TBD | Matthews flashed on MNF last year with an 11 catch, 120 yards, and 2 TD performance. He is a 7th round pick with 1st Round comparisons. He has struggled with maturity early, but the talent is there. | 9/25/2014 |
| 6/17/2013 | Montee Ball will be successful for the Denver Broncos | TBD | See 2013 comparison for Ball to McCoy here: http://www.nfldataconsultants.com/2014/04/10/review-series-comparing-montee-ball-lesean-mccoy/. He has had a slow start in 2014, but also had an appendectomy just prior to the season. | 9/25/2014 |
| 7/8/2013 | Detroit Lions 2013 draft class will finish in the bottom third of the class | TBD | The first two selections both had negative scores by PFF. The two highest grades in the class are at positions with much less value towards winning. Offensive Guard and Punter. Offensive Guard Larry Warford has been the best of the class. | 9/25/2014 |