The Odds Are Stacked Against NFL Organizations Drafting A Franchise QB In The First Round

April 10, 2014 by

If you are in need of a Quarterback, it is important to understand whether the ones that fit your system are capable of consistently winning at the next level. The sad nature of the NFL is that if you don’t have a reliable Quarterback, your job will always be in jeopardy. Under 20% of Quarterbacks taken in the first round since 1998 have a career QB Rating of >=90 and a QB Rating of 90 is the threshold for a QB to make the playoffs consistently with a league average defense or better. The question for the organizations selecting a Quarterback in this draft class, especially in Round 1: will you obtain one with a good chance to beat those odds that are already stacked against you? They only get harder the later you draft a Quarterback. You are lucky if there is one that will have at least a career 90 QB Rating in a given class, yet current draft projections show the possibility of 4 potential Quarterbacks chosen in the first round. Only the 2004 QB Draft class had more than 1 first round QB in it to surpass a career QB Rating of 90. NFL Data Consulants has Analytical QB Career Forecasts on around 150 Quarterbacks available. Now you know why we are confident when writing this on the Philadelphia Eagles Quarterback Situation and this on the New York Jets Quarterback Situation

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Filed Under: Coaching Staff, Core Principle Articles, Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Head Coaches (HC), New York Jets, NFL Draft, Philadelphia Eagles, Quaterbacks (QB), Scouting Department

The Contrarian View Of QB Matt Barkley

November 4, 2013 by

As noted in the NFL Data Consultants prediction of the Philadelphia Eagles QBs, both Nick Foles and Matt Barkley have analytical comparisons to Pro Bowl Quarterbacks using our comparative analysis methodology. For Nick Foles, the comparison is Aaron Rodgers, who was afforded some development time behind Brett Favre. Foles has undertaken a very different development track, but the same upside remains and one game shouldn’t decide his fate, whether it was the poor performance against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 7 or the record breaking performance against the Oakland Raiders in Week 9. The key is using an analytical approach, not an emotional approach is to understand the upside, potential, or lack of it for a Quarterback and to understand measuring his development; this allows an objective approach when a single game may just be an outlier in either direction. (Example: The Nationally Televised MNF Football game between the Atlanta Falcons and New Yorks in which Geno Smith threw 3 touchdowns and no interceptions with a 147.7 QB Rating. To date, that is the only game in which he has a positive touchdown to interception ratio with 9 games played, and his current QB Rating of 71.0 is in the low 70s, which is in the range of Geno Smith’s analytical prediction.)

With that introduction, I want to show the contrarian view of Matt Barkley. This is an analytical comparison you will see no where else, and you must buckle down with an analytical mindset and take in all the facts before you emotionally sound off. Out of nearly 900 QBs included in this analytical study, Matt Barkley only has one other Quarterback in his group, meaning it is a very well defined group. That other quarterback? Peyton Manning. If you take the emotional approach, you are probably exiting now before even seeing the data and analysis. You see where Peyton Manning is now and assume he has always played like a super star. Peyton Manning had his share of very tough games as a rookie (similar to Matt Barkley).

At this point, Matt Barkley has thrown 49 attempts, and I wanted to chart his start to the first two starts of Peyton Manning’s career, which includes Peyton Manning’s first 70 passes in the league.

 

Was that a lot closer than you would expect? Peyton Manning was taken 1st overall in the NFL Draft, thus the Indianapolis Colts committed to him and let him progress and develop. Peyton Manning has lost arm strength since his neck injury, but his game is not predicated on arm strength, but on the mastery of his offense and pre-snaps reads, and adjustments. Matt Barkley’s arm strength will improve as he has entered the league with a shoulder injury, but his arm strength will never be his calling card. If Peyton’s career progression is any indication, Barkley will need about 600 pass attempts to reach his next level and has the upside to reach a very high level. With the analytical comparison and play of Nick Foles, it will be very difficult for Matt Barkley to get those reps as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles. Thus stated in the original prediction, it would serve the Philadelphia Eagles better to go with Nick Foles and Matt Barkley for the long term and to get Matt Barkley reps when blowouts or injury make it possible. This was similar to the approach suggested for the Houston Texans Quarterbacks with Case Keenum and Matt Schaub, although Case Keenum’s QB group was not as strongly defined as Matt Barkley’s and Keenum needed reps for evaluation due to the massive upside of his group. Needless to say, the evaluation of Quarterbacks by the Philadelphia Eagles in the past two NFL drafts has been stellar, as they have loaded the position with massive talent and upside using only 3rd and 4th round picks in the NFL Draft. Kudos to the Philadelphia Eagles scouting department and General Manager, Howie Roseman.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, NFL Draft, Philadelphia Eagles, Quaterbacks (QB), Scouting Department

An Extensive Analysis On The Houston Texans Quarterbacks: Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, And Case Keenum

October 17, 2013 by

This article is in place to demonstrate the difference between an emotional and analytical approach. Fans often have an emotional approach, and the Quarterback situation for the Houston Texans verifies that. NFL Data Consulants will show clear data that will show a much clearer analytical picture. I will highlight the analytical outlook of Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, and Case Keenum.

Matt Schaub has a lot of Texans fans upset, but that is because they don’t see the full picture. Schaub has posted seasonal Quarterback ratings of 92.7, 98.6, 92, 96.8, and 90.7 leading up to this year. Since Quarterback Rating differential correlates highly with wins, it is obvious that these are very good QB Ratings for the offensive side of the equation. The question then becomes, is the 78.8 this season his reality or is it an outlier? As stated in the New York Jets analysis of Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith, this analysis is performed using a combination of analytics and neural network/machine learning methodology. This allows for groupings of very similar characteristics and football DNA that the human eye cannot see. It also absolves the human bias. Using nearly 900 QBs and only using data before entering the league, I have been able to establish Quarterback groupings that provide a picture of a Quarterback’s future. What will be amazing is just how close Schaub’s career Quarterback Rating is to his analytical group.

Now that we have seen Matt Schaub’s group, there is two things to note. First, Philip Rivers was in a two year slump himself. Second, that is a fine group to be associated with and Schaub has lived up to the comparison group with his career performance.

So, when the fans were cheering the Matt Schaub injury, just what were they getting with T.J. Yates. Lets look at his comparison group.


Wow, now look at the difference between that comparison group and the comparison group of Matt Schaub. It is night and day. The Houston Texans have no business replacing Matt Schaub except for injury. We have to look at the Case Keenum group to get a good comparison to see which Quarterback should be playing in the event of injury.


Case Keenum’s comparison has a mixed bag that includes high upside, but also a first round bust and an undrafted QB that left the league to go coach before ever playing a down in the NFL. Because of the upside, Keenum needs to be the #2 Quarterback on the depth chart. While the Scouting Department should be congratulated for landing his upside at such as steep discount, QB Case Keenum should be playing only under one of these three circumstances:

1) Matt Schaub is injured or

2) The Houston Texans have been eliminated from the playoffs or

3) The Houston Texans are in a blowout game (ahead or behind)

Head Coach Gary Kubiak and the Houston Texans Coaching Staff have gone with the right Quarterback with Matt Schaub set to miss time with his injury. The analytical approach is pretty strong and clear on who should be taking the reigns when Matt Schaub is not available. The Houston Texans organization has a lot of class, and it is an organization that I respect very much.

Filed Under: Coaching Staff, Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Head Coaches (HC), Houston Texans, Quaterbacks (QB), Scouting Department

What To Make Of The Philadelphia Eagles Draft Selection Of QB Matt Barkley?

July 19, 2013 by

When the Philadelphia Eagles traded up to the first pick in the 4th round to select QB Matt Barkley, what did they know that all other teams did not?  Head Coach Chip Kelly is known for being an outside the box thinker, and if that translates to good personnel decisions, it will be great for the Philadelphia Eagles fan base.  Matt Barkley’s Quarterback analyical profile was the best in this class according to NFL Data Consultants.

Yes, it is the human bias in us all that would have to do a double take on a USC Quarterback.  My own human bias had me do a study comparison of him versus the other previous USC Quarterbacks, and there are some things that clearly demonstrate that he is different.  Even though he is NFL Data Consultants best Quarterback of the 2013 NFL Draft class, he may not even the best long term QB on his own roster.  Nick Foles was a Quarterback that I was very high on after an analysis that I did last year comparing him to an elite NFL QB; while he did not get a benefit that the comparison QB did, the other side of that comparison remains incomplete for now.  Regardless, the sooner that the Philadelphia Eagles move on from turnover king, Michael Vick, the better it will be long term for this organization.

Although the analysis is incomplete on Nick Foles, it is interesting to note the following quote from Reuben Frank of CSNPhilly.com: “Foles last year became the first rookie in NFL history to throw for at least 240 yards per game while completing 60 percent of his passes.” Both young QBs compare to Pro Bowl Quarterbacks and the position looks bright for the Philadelphia Eagles for the long term.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Head Coaches (HC), NFL Draft, Philadelphia Eagles, Quaterbacks (QB)

A Comparative Analysis Summary Of The New York Jets Quarterbacks Geno Smith And Mark Sanchez

July 18, 2013 by

The New York Jets have been stricken with a disease that is a cancer to an organization, known as bad quarterback play. Mark Sanchez is what I would label as a “flat liner”. If you chart his QB Rating rating progression against time, you get a small dip early from just over 70 to just below 70 and slight bounce back to just over 70 and then a pretty long pretty flat line. Entering the 2013 NFL season, Mark Sanchez sits at a career QB rating of 71.7.

Thus, as a response, the New York Jets drafted another Quarterback, selecting QB Geno Smith in the 2nd round of the 2013 NFL Draft with the 39th pick overall. One type of analysis I do is break down a prospect with a mix of known metrics, often with my own modifications, and a number of my own proprietary metrics plus a clear rule and methodology for inclusion. I can then compare this to all players at the position to find the closest comparisons for a draft prospect and get a clearer picture of a floor/ceiling; better yet, I can remove human bias that I may have about a player.

The quarterback comparisons for Geno Smith are all either backup quarterbacks or out of the league currently. This group combines for 22 games started and 49 games played in the NFL. The QB Rating of their cumulative stats is in the 60s with an upside into the low 70s. From an analytical perspective, it is hard to believe that Geno Smith is going to be the quarterback solution for the New York Jets. Perhaps he can overcome the odds.

Interesting enough, the cumulative NFL stats for Mark Sanchez’s comparison group, excluding Sanchez, nets a 72.6 QB rating; compare that to Mark Sanchez’s career QB rating of 71.7. The New York Jets organization faces tough obstacles and will need resolve to overcome.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, New York Jets, NFL Draft, Quaterbacks (QB)