How Much Of An Upside Does Chicago Bears DE Cornelius Washington Have?

July 13, 2013 by

The Chicago Bears selected DE Cornelius Washington in the 6th round with the 188th pick overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. He has been an intriguing prospect based on some of his analytics, and therefore is a good draft pick for NFL Data Consultants to weigh in on.

Physically, Cornelius Washington meets thresholds that are rarely seen. The physical metrics just jump right off the page and should be intriguing to anyone evaluating him analytically. He physically compares to defensive ends that have performed well in the league. He also compares analytically to DE Vernon Gholston, who was selected 6th overall in the 2008 NFL Draft by the New York Jets and did not last long in the league. Gholston had 14 sacks in his final season, which was more sacks than Washington had in his whole collegiate career. For this study, Vernon Gholston is a good comparison case.

Vernon Gholston had warning flags, not because of his athletic gifts, but when you look at the production. He had good production in raw number form with 8.5 and 14 sacks in his final two seasons. However, he played in less than 5 games that would be classified as games that would meet our standards for inclusion out of his 27 total games. That is a very low number and would raise questions on much of the production from his fantastic raw numbers.

Cornelius Washington played in about 5 times as many included games as Vernon Gholston, thus his production metrics will hold more validity. On a per game basis, he was challenged slightly less than Vernon Gholston. Cornelius Washington flashed early with production, but has been in a drought since 2010 in terms of production. Despite his fantastic physical metrics, the odds are stacked against him to break 4 sacks in a single season.

The objective is to do a risk analysis and look at it from a probabilistic standpoint.  Can he break 4 sacks? Physically, he should be able to net double figures in a single season, but his overall risk analysis places a much lower upside. Without further data and information that an organization may have available to analyze, it would be difficult to answer the question: Why does Cornelius Washington have such a dichotomy between his physical and production metrics? What can be said is that unlike Vernon Gholston, Cornelius Washington was drafted much closer to his long term market value as a defensive end.

Filed Under: 4-3 Defensive Ends (DE), Chicago Bears, Featured Articles, Football Analytics, New York Jets, NFL Draft

The New England Patriots Great Trade Nets Them LB Jamie Collins

July 11, 2013 by

The New England Patriots were on the other side of the trade with the Minnesota Vikings in the 2013 NFL Draft, picking up 3 additional picks in the draft by moving from 29th to 52nd in the draft. In this case, the New England Patriots had their best move of the offseason.

This is a passing league, and QB Rating differential is a key indicator to wins. So, bringing in a defensive player that has the ability to do reduce the Quarterback Rating of the opponent in multiple ways is a tremendous value. Jamie Collins can do it in pass coverage and as a pass rusher. Getting to the passer will reduce a QB Rating by 25% or more, and Collins is off the charts in pass rush metrics. His analytical profile screams as a player destined to play in multiple pro bowls.

Jamie Collins also brings versatility to play multiple positions (ILB, 3-4 OLB, 4-3 DE, MLB, WLB, SLB). At Southern Mississippi, he changed positions each year, and even played Safety for a season. In his final season, he had 10 sacks and 4 forced fumbles for a winless team. Rarely do you get such high upside with such a high floor, but that is a summary of Jamie Collins. He has barely scratched the surface of his potential since he has not had a chance to focus on a specific position.

It would be an understatement to say that the New England Patriots have had a very difficult offseason, but the trade to net multiple picks and still acquire the highest rated defensive player on our board was art in action. The New England Patriots drafted a player that I am confident will play in multiple pro bowls and be a force in this league for a long time.

Filed Under: 3-4 Inside Linebackers (ILB), 3-4 Outside Linebackers (OLB), 4-3 Middle Linebackers (MLB), 4-3 Strongside Linebackers (SLB), 4-3 Weakside Linebackers (WLB), Featured Articles, Football Analytics, New England Patriots, NFL Draft

How Risky Is WR Cordarrelle Patterson Of The Minnesota Vikings?

July 10, 2013 by

Yesterday, a review on WR T.Y. Hilton was posted speaking of the ability to isolate components of a game to try and get a better measure on what the overall value a player can add. The Vikings had three first round picks in the 2013 NFL Draft, and traded four picks (2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th) to move back into the end of the first round to get WR Cordarrelle Patterson.

So what did they draft when they selected Patterson? Well, there is no doubt Patterson is able to make plays with the ball in his hands. He faced stout competition and was challenged heavily, both metrics in his favor, but had a slightly less than neutral reliance metric score which may have little effect considering how low his wide receiver metric was. What pops out is the gap between his overall ability to make plays and his pure WR metric. The gap is very large, and his pure WR metric is very low while his overall ability metric clears the threshold with plenty of margin.

This type of profile suggests that Patterson may struggle as a pure WR, but will have the ability to do things that are special in other ways, including kick returner, punt returner,  and running game. In comparing Patterson to Hilton, this is what is seen: Hilton is a much better pure WR, but his overall metric is lower than Patterson. Patterson has a very low WR metric, but a higher overall metric. Comparative analysis compares Patterson’s game to a mix of WR Devin Hester and WR Jordan Shipley, although the advantage Patterson has on them is additional size. Hester has made numerous pro bowls as a return man, but has struggled as a wide receiver. He has also scored the most special teams touchdowns in NFL history. Shipley’s career has been derailed with injuries, but he did have 52 catches in his rookie season.

So, how risky is Patterson? He is quite a bit of risk at wide receiver, but at least brings a safety net of value that could impact games. Tomorrow, we will look at the other side of the trade that provided the Minnesota Vikings the right to select WR Cordarrelle Patterson as it may have been the most brilliant move of the draft.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Kick Returners (KR), Minnesota Vikings, NFL Draft, Punt Returners (PR), Wide Receivers (WR)

Can OT Justin Pugh Answer The Call For The New York Giants?

July 7, 2013 by

The New York Giants have had a trend of taking defensive linemen in the first round of NFL Drafts.  This has been one of the key reasons that they have had success with some playoff runs. Pressure on a Quarterback has a tremendous affect in lowering the opposing team’s QB rating.  And the QB rating differential between two teams correlates highly with wins and losses.

Here is just one example:

During the New England Patriots 16-0 run in 2007, they had a QB rating differential of +37.9, a very substantial margin. It was why they won so many games and went undefeated during the regular season.  However, in the Super Bowl, the Giants were on the plus side of the equation with a +4.8 rating.  The biggest difference in that game was the heavy reduction of Tom Brady’s usual QB rating.  Eli Manning was just slightly above his career rating, and the team effort kept them on the plus side of the margin.

In the 2013 NFL Draft, the Giants drafted OT Justin Pugh. For value to be realized, he must be able to play and stick at right tackle for the long term. Based on his analytical profile, I believe it is a longshot that he will stick at offensive tackle and will have to make a move to offensive guard within the next 3-5 years. If Justin Pugh can overcome the odds and become a successful RT, it will have a significant impact to the QB rating on the offensive side of the ledger for Eli Manning and the New York Giants.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, New York Giants, NFL Draft, Offensive Guards (OG), Offensive Tackles (OT), Quaterbacks (QB)

Denver Broncos Having A Montee Ball

June 17, 2013 by

There are a lot of varying viewpoints on the Montee Ball selection by the Denver Broncos, but NFL Data Consultants is a fan after much analysis. One of the data points of contention with RB Montee Ball was his short shuttle. A number of sources reported 4.11 and a number of them reported 4.31 as his short shuttle time. This is one of the reasons that NFL Data Consultants believe in a holistic approach and multiple points of analysis.

I take a specific approach when looking at a player’s production. In that analysis, Ball was graded at 5.01 yards per carry despite a non-adjusted figure of 5.6 yards per carry. From a production standpoint, this is a very good measure, especially considering his competition, challenge, and reliance metrics were all very good. Thus, it meant further investigation into some of the physical measures, including the 4.66/4.51 split in his 40 times between the combine and pro day. The culprit? Medication and sinus infection. One of the interesting things we had to do was go to our scientific approach with comparative analysis to get a much better read on his physical profile. The human bias would have been to say he was too slow, but the analytical approach is key to removing human bias. At the end of the process, Ball compared as a plus on LeSean McCoy, a runner that has started 44 games and averaged 4.6 yards per carry.

The great thing about using science in comparative analytics is that you can get a much stronger indicator of what a player is capable of doing at the pro levels. The other benefit is the ability to do a qualitative analysis to see what the scouting reports were of the comparable player. A common theme on physical elements of McCoy was that he is plenty quick enough to get to the corner, but lacked the elite speed. Interestingly enough, in his first 3 years he posted longs of 60 or more yards in each. According to Sports Science, Montee Ball had the 2nd fastest burst through the line and a stiff arm of 21.7% more force than Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. So what does the analytical package say? It appears the Denver Broncos have a good running back of the future regardless of any mixed reports that you see out there.

Filed Under: Denver Broncos, Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Minnesota Vikings, NFL Draft, Running Backs (RB), Scouting Department