An Evaluation Of The Pass Rush Potential Of Houston Texans OLB Trevardo Williams Versus OLB Sam Montgomery

July 3, 2013 by

When the Houston Texans drafted OLB Sam Montgomery with the 95th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, they left value on the board.  When they drafted OLB Trevardo Williams with the 124th overall selection in the 4th round of the 2013 NFL Draft, they made a much better decision.

Trevardo Williams meets the essential analytics that are common among good pass rushers in the league.  Sam Montgomery does not. It does not mean Sam Montgomery won’t have a better career, but when doing a risk assessment and analysis, the odds are against it. Football analytics should be used to tilt odds in your favor for long term success.

Trevardo Williams has the potential to be a very good pass rusher. He not only meets the analytic metrics that correlate with success, but he brings production to the table. It isn’t merely the production, but the consistency of it combined with his analytical profile that suggests he will be able to be a productive pass rusher in the NFL. The prediction here is that OLB Trevardo Williams will have more career sacks and pressures than OLB Sam Montgomery. Trevardo Williams will also likely win a starting job at outside linebacker within his first three years in the league.

Filed Under: 3-4 Outside Linebackers (OLB), Football Analytics, Houston Texans, NFL Draft

The Unique Case Of Green Bay Packers WR Charles Johnson

July 2, 2013 by

The Green Bay Packers drafted WR Charles Johnson in the 7th round of the 2013 NFL Draft.  Johnson played at Grand Valley State, but he has a lot of physical tools.

Analytically, his profile is that of a wide receiver with excellent physical measures, and a tremendous production score. His reliance metric and volume do present increased risk that must be factored in.  Overall, he presents good upside from where he was selected in the NFL Draft. Additionally, he is one of the unique cases (see RB Rex Burkhead, Cincinnati Bengals) in the NFL Draft to not have a direct close comparative at his position logged into our system.  The list of wide receivers on the outer fringes does make an intriguing list though.

Filed Under: Cincinnati Bengals, Football Analytics, Green Bay Packers, NFL Draft, Running Backs (RB), Wide Receivers (WR)

Going Back To Miami Dolphins Wide Receiver, Rishard Matthews

July 1, 2013 by

While the reports continue to vary on the role WR Rishard Matthews will have with the Dolphins in 2013, he remains under valued in the market. He was taken in the 2012 draft with pick 227 overall in the 7th round.  He has a solid production metric at wide receiver and his total value as a wide receiver and punt returner is past what you see from wide receivers that are typically the better producers in the NFL.

So how does analytics compare WR Rishard Matthews to WR Armon Binns? Binns has been making headlines for having a very good offseason.  That said, when comparing the two, Matthews had better production metrics for both wide receiver and special teams value, better reliance metrics, faced much better competition, and will make more plays at the NFL level. According to our analytical system, WR Rishard Matthews has a ceiling consistent with early round WRs. The Dolphins spent a lot of money on a wide receiver this offseason believing it would fix their “pin the tail on the donkey” methodology with evaluating wide receivers, including overpaying Brian Hartline who had 74 receptions and only 1 TD.  I am confident that WR Rishard Matthews will have more TDs in his first 74 NFL receptions.  He currently sits at 11 receptions.

While the Dolphins left value on the table, they had a solid early part of the draft. Rishard Matthews continues to be one of the biggest arbitrage selections at WR in recent years from my view, behind only WR Cecil Shorts, and a wide receiver in this class coming in a future post.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, Miami Dolphins, NFL Draft, Punt Returners (PR), Wide Receivers (WR)

Center Brian Schwenke Likely To Make An Impact With Tennessee Titans

June 30, 2013 by

Brian Schwenke was taken by the Tennessee Titans in the 4th round of the NFL Draft and was their highest rated center (OC) on their board.  Kudos to the organization and scouting staff for finding a long term starter in the 4th round. When the pads go on, Schwenke should immediately start earning more opportunity.

On his analytical profile alone, he should be the opening day starter at center.  The organization may choose to go with more experience however in lieu of talent. Schwenke has multiple pro bowl level potential, and we shall see if it comes to fruition.

Filed Under: Centers (OC), Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Scouting Department, Tennessee Titans

Baltimore Ravens And Their 2013 NFL Draft

June 29, 2013 by

Baltimore is a team that has implemented an analytics department, and it shows with their 2013 NFL Draft selections of  Matt Elam (Strong Safety) and Arthur Brown (Inside Linebacker), two players that should be cornerstones for the defense for the long term.  Arthur Brown in particular meets a particular metric that has been a standard among the better ILBs in the league.  The Baltimore Ravens scouting department has traditionally been one of the best in the league.

However, I want to focus the analytical study more on WR Aaron Mellette, who has been a favorite of some other analytical minds.  He is also touted as having a good offseason.  His pure production analytic scores are great, but his reliance and comparative analytics are both huge red flags.  None of his comparative wide receivers have even made NFL rosters and they too have had good base production metrics.  He does have the best opportunity of the comparatives to break the trend of not making an NFL roster, but the odds are against him making a long term impact.  WR Aaron Mellette was a 7th round pick out of Elon by the Baltimore Ravens though, thus the miss here is of a minimal nature.  With ILB Arthur Brown and SS Matt Elam on board, the Ravens fans will not have to worry much about Mellette failing to make a long term impact.

Filed Under: 3-4 Inside Linebackers (ILB), Baltimore Ravens, Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Scouting Department, Strong Safeties (SS), Wide Receivers (WR)