The Kansas City Chiefs, TE Travis Kelce, And Deja Vu

June 23, 2013 by

The Kansas City Chiefs selected TE Travis Kelce with the pick number 63 overall in the 3rd round of the 2013 NFL Draft.  So why images of deja vu and groundhog day?  Well, it all traces back to his comparative analytics profile and on the other end of it is TE Tony Moeaki, currently also on the Kansas City Chiefs roster as a 2010 draft selection in the 3rd round.

Tony Moeaki has battled injury throughout his career, including missing the entire 2011 season.  Travis Kelce steps in as a younger, longer term viable option at Tight End and an insurance policy if Moeaki is not ready for training camp.  It was a good selection by the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2013 NFL Draft for the short and long term.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, Kansas City Chiefs, NFL Draft, Tight Ends (TE)

Who Is WR Tobais Palmer Of The Jacksonville Jaguars?

June 22, 2013 by

While the Jacksonville Jaguars selection of CB Dwayne Gratz was solid, it was the signing of WR Tobais Palmer as an undrafted free agent that was intriguing.  Tobais Palmer is a wide receiver out of North Carolina State that brings an intriguing skill set as an undrafted player.

Besides the obvious measure of speed, Tobais Palmer scored well in the reliance and production metrics at wide receiver.  He also gets a boost due to what he can provide as a kick returner.  He was not a punt returner in college, but may be worth a look at the position as well.  He has the analytical profile to be able to stick on a roster despite going undrafted.  He is certainly an arbitrage signing based on his profile makeup, and should push for playing time down the line as he develops.  While he develops, he can provide special teams value.

Filed Under: Cornerbacks (CB), Football Analytics, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kick Returners (KR), NFL Draft, Punt Returners (PR), Wide Receivers (WR)

The San Francisco 49ers And The Selection Of Quinton Patton

June 21, 2013 by

WR Quinton Patton arrived in San Francisco after buying his own ticket to fly from Nashville.  Had he actually arrived and entered the team facility too soon, he would have forfeited his rights to participate at rookie minicamp.  Despite demonstrating such an enthusiasm to get started, it was only the starting point to the question: what is his picture for long term success?

And this wide receiver out of Louisiana Tech, WR Quinton Patton has a good analytical profile for success.  This included a strong reliance metric score as well as a strong production metric score.  Meanwhile, 2012 draft pick WR A.J. Jenkins had an analytical profile with much higher risk for long term success despite stronger physical measures when he entered the league.  NFL Data Consultants predicts that WR Quinton Patton will become a better wide receiver prospect than first round pick WR A.J. Jenkins.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, NFL Draft, San Francisco 49ers, Wide Receivers (WR)

What Is The Story On Oakland Raiders RB Latavius Murray?

June 20, 2013 by

Have you ever thought what it would be like to understand an additional dimension to the one you are viewing?  The easiest concept for that picture is imagining a 3D object in 2D world.  With Oakland Raiders RB Latavius Murray, this concept is valid.

Despite having good on the surface numbers, 5.5 yards per carry or greater over the past 3 seasons, a deeper look shows a different picture.  His rushing average dropped to 3.4 yards per carry in his challenge games, which raises a red flag.  It concerned me heavily until I took an analytical look encompassing a much higher dimensional space.  He compared to a group of running backs that had all been taken earlier than him with the closest comparison being RB Andre Brown of the New York Giants.  Without the analytical view using additional dimensional space, I would have wrote him off for poor performance in challenge games.  Using a view that encompasses additional dimensional space, he compares to Andre Brown and a little more loosely to a running back with multiple pro bowls.  As a 6th round selection at pick 181, the Raiders made a selection that has all the signs of arbitrage.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, New York Giants, NFL Draft, Oakland Raiders, Running Backs (RB), Scouting Department

Cincinnati Bengals Roaring With DE Margus Hunt

June 19, 2013 by

When the Cincinnati Bengals selected Defensive End Margus Hunt in the 2013 NFL draft out of Southern Methodist University, they were doing based upon his athletic potential.  At 277 pounds, he ran a 4.62 and benched 38 reps at the combine.  As fantastic as those were, it demonstrates a very limited approach to an analytical profile.  It does however suggest that he has a safety net for impact in the league on special teams.

In the measures that correlate with impact at DE, he met the barometer for future success.  Despite the label of being a raw prospect, he was challenged more than most DE prospects and had more experience doing it than you would believe from scouting reports alone.  He also triggered another major indicator that his best ball is not behind him.  That said, one of his indicators suggest he may have a slower start to his career, but he will be around for the long term due to his projected peak.  Fortunately, for him, his knack for blocking kicks and impacting special teams are critical for his opportunity to develop as a defensive end.

Filed Under: 4-3 Defensive Ends (DE), Cincinnati Bengals, Football Analytics, NFL Draft