NFL Data Consultants Post NFL Week 1 And Cut Down Day Notes

September 11, 2013 by

Cut down day and Week 1 have now come and gone so it is time for further updates. NFL Data Consultants had identified 4 key waiver wire gems among the cuts and all four them ended up with NFL organizations very quickly. Only one of the them ended up with an organization that does not have an analytics department, while 3 of them landed with organizations that do use analytics.

  • One of the oddest decisions of Week 1 was the inactivation of DE Vinny Curry of the Philadelphia Eagles. In the preseason, he was practically unblockable and applied constant pressure on the quarterback. With the fast break offense of the Eagles, the organization should have confidence that it will be in the lead and thus in a situation where pass rushers should be on the field.
  • New York Jets QB Geno Smith ran a little bit ahead of his QB Rating, going 24 for 39 with 214 yards passing and a touchdown and interception. His QB Rating was 78.6, a little better than the low to mid 70s upside he is projected at. Now he will be challenged with a short week and the New England Patriots.
Filed Under: 3-4 Defensive Ends (DE), 3-4 Outside Linebackers (OLB), Arizona Cardinals, Football Analytics, Houston Texans, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, Offensive Guards (OG), Philadelphia Eagles, Quaterbacks (QB), Running Backs (RB), Tight Ends (TE), Washington Redskins

The New England Patriots Great Trade Nets Them LB Jamie Collins

July 11, 2013 by

The New England Patriots were on the other side of the trade with the Minnesota Vikings in the 2013 NFL Draft, picking up 3 additional picks in the draft by moving from 29th to 52nd in the draft. In this case, the New England Patriots had their best move of the offseason.

This is a passing league, and QB Rating differential is a key indicator to wins. So, bringing in a defensive player that has the ability to do reduce the Quarterback Rating of the opponent in multiple ways is a tremendous value. Jamie Collins can do it in pass coverage and as a pass rusher. Getting to the passer will reduce a QB Rating by 25% or more, and Collins is off the charts in pass rush metrics. His analytical profile screams as a player destined to play in multiple pro bowls.

Jamie Collins also brings versatility to play multiple positions (ILB, 3-4 OLB, 4-3 DE, MLB, WLB, SLB). At Southern Mississippi, he changed positions each year, and even played Safety for a season. In his final season, he had 10 sacks and 4 forced fumbles for a winless team. Rarely do you get such high upside with such a high floor, but that is a summary of Jamie Collins. He has barely scratched the surface of his potential since he has not had a chance to focus on a specific position.

It would be an understatement to say that the New England Patriots have had a very difficult offseason, but the trade to net multiple picks and still acquire the highest rated defensive player on our board was art in action. The New England Patriots drafted a player that I am confident will play in multiple pro bowls and be a force in this league for a long time.

Filed Under: 3-4 Inside Linebackers (ILB), 3-4 Outside Linebackers (OLB), 4-3 Middle Linebackers (MLB), 4-3 Strongside Linebackers (SLB), 4-3 Weakside Linebackers (WLB), Featured Articles, Football Analytics, New England Patriots, NFL Draft

An Evaluation Of The Pass Rush Potential Of Houston Texans OLB Trevardo Williams Versus OLB Sam Montgomery

July 3, 2013 by

When the Houston Texans drafted OLB Sam Montgomery with the 95th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, they left value on the board.  When they drafted OLB Trevardo Williams with the 124th overall selection in the 4th round of the 2013 NFL Draft, they made a much better decision.

Trevardo Williams meets the essential analytics that are common among good pass rushers in the league.  Sam Montgomery does not. It does not mean Sam Montgomery won’t have a better career, but when doing a risk assessment and analysis, the odds are against it. Football analytics should be used to tilt odds in your favor for long term success.

Trevardo Williams has the potential to be a very good pass rusher. He not only meets the analytic metrics that correlate with success, but he brings production to the table. It isn’t merely the production, but the consistency of it combined with his analytical profile that suggests he will be able to be a productive pass rusher in the NFL. The prediction here is that OLB Trevardo Williams will have more career sacks and pressures than OLB Sam Montgomery. Trevardo Williams will also likely win a starting job at outside linebacker within his first three years in the league.

Filed Under: 3-4 Outside Linebackers (OLB), Football Analytics, Houston Texans, NFL Draft