How Risky Is WR Cordarrelle Patterson Of The Minnesota Vikings?

July 10, 2013 by

Yesterday, a review on WR T.Y. Hilton was posted speaking of the ability to isolate components of a game to try and get a better measure on what the overall value a player can add. The Vikings had three first round picks in the 2013 NFL Draft, and traded four picks (2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th) to move back into the end of the first round to get WR Cordarrelle Patterson.

So what did they draft when they selected Patterson? Well, there is no doubt Patterson is able to make plays with the ball in his hands. He faced stout competition and was challenged heavily, both metrics in his favor, but had a slightly less than neutral reliance metric score which may have little effect considering how low his wide receiver metric was. What pops out is the gap between his overall ability to make plays and his pure WR metric. The gap is very large, and his pure WR metric is very low while his overall ability metric clears the threshold with plenty of margin.

This type of profile suggests that Patterson may struggle as a pure WR, but will have the ability to do things that are special in other ways, including kick returner, punt returner,  and running game. In comparing Patterson to Hilton, this is what is seen: Hilton is a much better pure WR, but his overall metric is lower than Patterson. Patterson has a very low WR metric, but a higher overall metric. Comparative analysis compares Patterson’s game to a mix of WR Devin Hester and WR Jordan Shipley, although the advantage Patterson has on them is additional size. Hester has made numerous pro bowls as a return man, but has struggled as a wide receiver. He has also scored the most special teams touchdowns in NFL history. Shipley’s career has been derailed with injuries, but he did have 52 catches in his rookie season.

So, how risky is Patterson? He is quite a bit of risk at wide receiver, but at least brings a safety net of value that could impact games. Tomorrow, we will look at the other side of the trade that provided the Minnesota Vikings the right to select WR Cordarrelle Patterson as it may have been the most brilliant move of the draft.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Kick Returners (KR), Minnesota Vikings, NFL Draft, Punt Returners (PR), Wide Receivers (WR)

Going Back To Miami Dolphins Wide Receiver, Rishard Matthews

July 1, 2013 by

While the reports continue to vary on the role WR Rishard Matthews will have with the Dolphins in 2013, he remains under valued in the market. He was taken in the 2012 draft with pick 227 overall in the 7th round.  He has a solid production metric at wide receiver and his total value as a wide receiver and punt returner is past what you see from wide receivers that are typically the better producers in the NFL.

So how does analytics compare WR Rishard Matthews to WR Armon Binns? Binns has been making headlines for having a very good offseason.  That said, when comparing the two, Matthews had better production metrics for both wide receiver and special teams value, better reliance metrics, faced much better competition, and will make more plays at the NFL level. According to our analytical system, WR Rishard Matthews has a ceiling consistent with early round WRs. The Dolphins spent a lot of money on a wide receiver this offseason believing it would fix their “pin the tail on the donkey” methodology with evaluating wide receivers, including overpaying Brian Hartline who had 74 receptions and only 1 TD.  I am confident that WR Rishard Matthews will have more TDs in his first 74 NFL receptions.  He currently sits at 11 receptions.

While the Dolphins left value on the table, they had a solid early part of the draft. Rishard Matthews continues to be one of the biggest arbitrage selections at WR in recent years from my view, behind only WR Cecil Shorts, and a wide receiver in this class coming in a future post.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, Miami Dolphins, NFL Draft, Punt Returners (PR), Wide Receivers (WR)

Who Is WR Tobais Palmer Of The Jacksonville Jaguars?

June 22, 2013 by

While the Jacksonville Jaguars selection of CB Dwayne Gratz was solid, it was the signing of WR Tobais Palmer as an undrafted free agent that was intriguing.  Tobais Palmer is a wide receiver out of North Carolina State that brings an intriguing skill set as an undrafted player.

Besides the obvious measure of speed, Tobais Palmer scored well in the reliance and production metrics at wide receiver.  He also gets a boost due to what he can provide as a kick returner.  He was not a punt returner in college, but may be worth a look at the position as well.  He has the analytical profile to be able to stick on a roster despite going undrafted.  He is certainly an arbitrage signing based on his profile makeup, and should push for playing time down the line as he develops.  While he develops, he can provide special teams value.

Filed Under: Cornerbacks (CB), Football Analytics, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kick Returners (KR), NFL Draft, Punt Returners (PR), Wide Receivers (WR)