NFL 2013 Preseason Week 3 Football Notes

August 25, 2013 by

Notes and Updates from Week 3 of the 2013 NFL Preseason are below:

  • As mentioned in the NFL Preseason Week 2 Notes, Michael Vick had played excellent football in the short sample size, but had mixed results when given a larger sample. QB Nick Foles is probably the first Quarterback in history to lose a QB job with an 84% completion percentage with a  QB Rating. Bill Parcells was once quoted, “You all act like you can dial 1-800 and get a quarterback.” To that, I say he is literally correct. Right now, that phone number starts with a Philadelphia area code.
  • So who was the highest graded offensive player by Pro Football Focus for the Green Bay Packers in the third preseason game? It was none other than RB Alex Green, who had 2 carries for 31 yards and finally showed the burst that makes him an NFL Data Consultants favorite. He is in a crowded backfield now, but there is no doubt he can play and be an effective running back when healthy. With RB Johnathan Franklin ineffective and RB DuJuan Harris battling a knee injury, the door is opening for Alex Green.
  • New York Jets Quarterback Geno Smith finally got back on the field after returning from an ankle injury. The quote in my Preseason Week 2 Notes says it all. QB Geno Smith threw three interceptions and accounted for a safety by running through the back of the endzone. To top that off, QB Mark Sanchez entered the game in the 4th quarter behind a backup offensive line and injured his right shoulder. The New York Jets is an organization in disarray, and the only way out of that is to take a long term analytical approach.
  • Unfortunately for the Arizona Cardinals, OG Jonathan Cooper is going to be potentially out for the season. Guard is a position of lesser value, but what how can this injury affect QB Carson Palmer? Remember pressure on the Quarterback will drop the QB Rating by 25% or more.
  • QB Mike Glennon of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers demonstrated the Jekyll and Hyde persona of his analytical profile. He completed only 3 of 9 passes for 44 yards, but had a TD and no interceptions.
  • Defensive End Margus Hunt delivered his first preseason sack for the Cincinnati Bengals. Hunt also had two solo tackles, an assist, and a tackle for loss. With DE Michael Johnson playing the season on a franchise tag, DE Margus Hunt is likely going to be filling the position next year so he needs to develop and be ready by year two. Relatively new to the game of football, he still has a way to go in development; however, the ceiling remains high.
  • TE Luke Willson continues to run with the Seattle Seahawks first team offense. Willson had 2 receptions for 21 yards and continues to make rapid improvement, especially in his run blocking.  He will continue to make it difficult for the Seattle Seahawks Coaching Staff to get keep him off of the field.
  • Denver Broncos RB Montee Ball showed more of why he should get more opportunity over Ronnie Hillman at running back. Ball had 70 total yards, 43 rushing and 27 receiving and added a touchdown. Ronnie Hillman had 6 carries for 34 yards, but once again turned the football over with a fumble.
  • WR Quinton Patton made his first preseason appearance, which was referenced in the NFL Preseason Week 2 Notes. Patton led the San Francisco 49ers in receptions and receiving yards, catching 4 passes for 35 yards. For having a road bump in his rookie year development due to a fractured finger, the prediction that WR Quinton Patton would be better than A.J. Jenkins is practically in the bag after A.J. Jenkins had a horrific offseason and was traded away. Patton remains destined for a good future at wide receiver.
Filed Under: 4-3 Defensive Ends (DE), Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Coaching Staff, Denver Broncos, Football Analytics, Green Bay Packers, New York Jets, Offensive Guards (OG), Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Quaterbacks (QB), Running Backs (RB), San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Strong Safeties (SS), Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tight Ends (TE), Washington Redskins, Wide Receivers (WR)

NFL 2013 Preseason Week 2 Football Notes

August 23, 2013 by

Notes and Updates as it pertains to Week 2 of the 2013 NFL Preseason is below:

  • Michael Vick has won the starting job in Philadelphia. He has played tremendous this preseason and if going by the short sample, he is the logical choice. Vick has a tendency of turning the football over, and it is likely that a bigger sample size will bear that out. Luckily for the Philadelphia Eagles, they are deep in Quarterback options if the turnover trend emerges during the season.
  • TE Ladarius Green caught 5 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. He has Wide Receiver like potential out of the Tight End position, and just needs the right scheme to fit. With the San Diego Chargers struggling to keep WRs healthy, perhaps Ladarius Green will be able to carve more of a Wide Receiver like role even with a healthy Antonio Gates.
  • The New York Jets have to be concerned right now regarding with the Quarterback situation. Mark Sanchez has continued the 1:1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions throughout the preseason. He has proven what he is. Geno Smith did not play after an injuring his ankle and having brutal practices. It is sort of like the quote, “It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt.” While Geno Smith is sidelined, he isn’t able to remove all doubt that he is not the long term answer at Quarterback for the New York Jets. Geno Smith is slated to start at QB for the New York Jets in Preseason Week 3.
  • It had to be nearly impossible for the St. Louis Rams to evaluate their second team wide receivers properly with the play of QB Kellen Clemens; WR Stedman Bailey was among this group that had little chance to be evaluated. Kellen Clemens provided a brutal Quarterback outing as he lived on the a rule of 2s; he threw 2 over the head of Bailey,completed 2 of his eleven passes, and then threw 2 interceptions. Quarterback is a difficult position to find and upgrade. Perhaps they could find an upgrade since there are 2 third string Quarterbacks that NDC analytics grades to have a good rate of success.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers Strong Safety Shamarko Thomas led the team in tackles, providing 4 solo tackles and 2 assists. He also forced a fumble that led to a turnover. He clearly demonstrated the skills of a successful Strong Safety.
  • While the Denver Broncos were getting beat like a drum by the Seattle Seahawks, the battle at running back raged on. RB Ronnie Hillman had 13 carries for 34 yards, and he turned the ball over with a fumble. A turnover and an average yards per carry of under 3 yards is going to make it tough to not hand the ball to RB Montee Ball; Ball had 6 carries for 28 yards, an average of 4.66 yards per carry. Analytically, it is clear that Montee Ball is the better ball carrier, but he did miss a blitz assignment that led to QB Peyton Manning being hit. The only thing that can keep him off the field is himself; it is based on his determination to learn and execute his pass block assignments. He has the skill set to be a successful runner in the NFL.
  • WR Quinton Patton of the San Francisco 49ers has yet to play this preseason due to a fractured finger. Now that it has healed and he has been cleard to catch passes, he should be available for evaluation in NFL Preseason Week 3 or Week 4. The San Francisco 49ers are clearly searching for answers at wide receiver as seen by the trading WR A.J. Jenkins to the Kansas City Chiefs for WR Jon Baldwin. Just like Jenkins, Baldwin has an analytical profile that suggests a high risk of failing.
Filed Under: Denver Broncos, Football Analytics, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Quaterbacks (QB), Running Backs (RB), San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Strong Safeties (SS), Tight Ends (TE), Wide Receivers (WR)

Baltimore Ravens And Their 2013 NFL Draft

June 29, 2013 by

Baltimore is a team that has implemented an analytics department, and it shows with their 2013 NFL Draft selections of  Matt Elam (Strong Safety) and Arthur Brown (Inside Linebacker), two players that should be cornerstones for the defense for the long term.  Arthur Brown in particular meets a particular metric that has been a standard among the better ILBs in the league.  The Baltimore Ravens scouting department has traditionally been one of the best in the league.

However, I want to focus the analytical study more on WR Aaron Mellette, who has been a favorite of some other analytical minds.  He is also touted as having a good offseason.  His pure production analytic scores are great, but his reliance and comparative analytics are both huge red flags.  None of his comparative wide receivers have even made NFL rosters and they too have had good base production metrics.  He does have the best opportunity of the comparatives to break the trend of not making an NFL roster, but the odds are against him making a long term impact.  WR Aaron Mellette was a 7th round pick out of Elon by the Baltimore Ravens though, thus the miss here is of a minimal nature.  With ILB Arthur Brown and SS Matt Elam on board, the Ravens fans will not have to worry much about Mellette failing to make a long term impact.

Filed Under: 3-4 Inside Linebackers (ILB), Baltimore Ravens, Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Scouting Department, Strong Safeties (SS), Wide Receivers (WR)

Shamarko Thomas, The Next Great Pittsburgh Steelers Safety?

June 26, 2013 by

The biggest knock on S Shamarko Thomas is his height and concussions, which are the prominent reasons he fell to the 4th round and pick 111 overall in the 2013 NFL Draft.  Analytics and data modeling can measure the likelihood of height affecting success considering all the other data points, and studying film on Dahon Goldson’s tackling technique (see Bobby Hosea’s helmet free tackling technique) would be critical in reducing concussions.

What Shamarko Thomas lacks with height, he makes up in every other area with his physical measures.  He led his team in tackles as a safety, thus a further verification of the physical metrics and range on the field.  He has the versatility to play either Free Safety or Strong Safety, and his background also suggests qualitative measures of leadership and determination for success.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a good habit of developing players internally.  Thomas will likely have a year or two of seasoning before taking the reigns, but when he does, he is expected to excel.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, Free Safeties (FS), NFL Draft, Pittsburgh Steelers, Strong Safeties (SS)