Jordan Reed, Is He The Future For The Washington Redskins At Tight End?

July 16, 2013 by

Jordan Reed has been highlighted on other sites that like to review players with an analytical approach. Since it is always fun to compare analysis, I will do so in my review of TE Jordan Reed.

Drafted in the 3rd round with the 85th selection overall by the Washington Redskins in the 2013 NFL Draft, the question is what to make of expectations for the future of Jordan Reed at Tight End. A comparative analysis of nearly 300 Tight Ends, puts him on an island by himself; he has no comparison close enough to classify as a direct comparison, although there are some interesting names that are on the periphery. With confidence, I can say that Aaron Hernandez is not a good comparison for Jordan Reed even though both Tight Ends played at Florida. In fact, the analytical profile of Owen Daniels would be a much closer comparison to the football potential of Aaron Hernandez.

Although there is no direct comparison, the nearest comparison would be a cross between Tony Moeaki and Dennis Pitta. Jordan Reed has a very high reliance metric score, and his production score is higher than both Moeaki and Pitta. The number of games included also adds validity to his metrics so there is plenty of upside.

The major concern for Jordan Reed’s long term prospects is the health of his knee and quad. Reading his own quotes about the injury, it sounds structural, but I lack the proper information to determine the risk level it adds for the long term. He has the physical and analytical profile to be a success in the league and be a long term answer as a move Tight End for the Washington Redskins. Thus, the answer to whether he is the future for the Washington Redskins at Tight End is strictly health dependent.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Tight Ends (TE), Washington Redskins

An Interesting Look Into San Diego Chargers Tight End Ladarius Green

July 14, 2013 by

For the San Diego Chargers, I will focus less on the 2013 NFL Draft and more on an unheralded prospect from the 2012 NFL Draft. This article will take a deeper look at TE Ladarius Green and his future outlook in the NFL.

One key positive about TE Ladarius Green is that he had a higher score in the receiving production metric than did WR Keenan Allen. It is interesting to note that it is rare for a Tight End to hit the threshold for wide receivers in this metric, which Ladarius Green did. However, the reliance metric for Keenan Allen is strong, while it was negative for Ladarius Green.

Upon looking at the reliance metrics with all the tight ends sorted by the receiving production metric, there was one thing that stood out. No Tight End that meet the threshold for the production metric for the WR position had much NFL impact if they also had a negative reliance metric score, which fits the profile that Ladarius Green fits under.

The question then becomes, can Ladarius Green defeat this trend? He would become the first of 14 Tight Ends to have a receiving production metric that meets Wide Receiver thresholds while also having a negative reliance metric. Those are tough, but not insurmountable odds. He does have nice straight ahead movement metrics as well as other metrics that may signal success. The San Diego Chargers scheme will have to be tailored to maximize his upside and potential for that to happen.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, NFL Draft, San Diego Chargers, Tight Ends (TE), Wide Receivers (WR)

The Kansas City Chiefs, TE Travis Kelce, And Deja Vu

June 23, 2013 by

The Kansas City Chiefs selected TE Travis Kelce with the pick number 63 overall in the 3rd round of the 2013 NFL Draft.  So why images of deja vu and groundhog day?  Well, it all traces back to his comparative analytics profile and on the other end of it is TE Tony Moeaki, currently also on the Kansas City Chiefs roster as a 2010 draft selection in the 3rd round.

Tony Moeaki has battled injury throughout his career, including missing the entire 2011 season.  Travis Kelce steps in as a younger, longer term viable option at Tight End and an insurance policy if Moeaki is not ready for training camp.  It was a good selection by the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2013 NFL Draft for the short and long term.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, Kansas City Chiefs, NFL Draft, Tight Ends (TE)

Seattle Seahawks Prey On Talent With TE Luke Willson

June 18, 2013 by

The Seattle Seahawks made one of the best arbitrage selections in the 2013 NFL draft when they selected TE Luke Willson out of Rice in the fifth round with pick 158 overall.  What stood out to NFL Data Consultants was the comparative analysis, which brought up the name Jimmy Graham.  Jimmy Graham was taken by the New Orleans Saints in the 2010 NFL draft with pick 95 overall in the third round.  Jimmy Graham was a two sport athlete, playing basketball for four years before transferring his skills over the football field for a single season while at Miami.

Just like Jimmy Graham, Luke Willson is a two sport athlete.  He was signed by the Toronto Blue Jay organization in 2011.  Prior to his final collegiate season, he spent the offseason playing baseball.  He carries himself as a professional and was noted for his blocking skills in scouting reports, an area of his game in which he has an advantage to where Jimmy Graham was entering the league.  After our filter process, the analysis noted that Graham played against tougher competition than Luke Willson, but Willson had a better challenge metric score.  Additionally, his reliance metric was a strong score, demonstrating that unlike some Tight Ends that have demonstrated athletic ability in physical tests alone, his analytical profile suggests he is not fool’s gold.  Reliance is a metric that provides a window of what a player’s collegiate staff really thought of a player.  Based on my analysis, it is my prediction that he will be the starting tight end for the Seattle Seahawks within three years.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, New Orleans Saints, NFL Draft, Seattle Seahawks, Tight Ends (TE)