The Buffalo Bills, Moneyball, And WR Robert Woods

June 24, 2013 by

Bill President, Russ Brandon, declared that the Buffalo Bills would be a Moneyball organization.  While the 2013 NFL Draft was not a strong indication of that direction by their scouting department, the Buffalo Bills did take a very solid wide receiver prospect in Robert Woods.

WR Robert Woods was taken 41 overall in the second round out of Southern California.  Despite playing across from one of the more highly touted wide receivers in the nation in Marquise Lee, he put up good reliance and production analytical scores, both which suggest that he is a very small risk for failure.  At the wide receiver position, he was probably one of the safest plays if you were looking for a long term starter.   Interestingly enough, his comparative analysis also shows something very unique about him, but that will be left as a mystery to you for now.  What isn’t a mystery is that WR Robert Woods analytical profile shows he was a good selection by the Buffalo Bills.

Filed Under: Buffalo Bills, Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Scouting Department, Wide Receivers (WR)

Who Is WR Tobais Palmer Of The Jacksonville Jaguars?

June 22, 2013 by

While the Jacksonville Jaguars selection of CB Dwayne Gratz was solid, it was the signing of WR Tobais Palmer as an undrafted free agent that was intriguing.  Tobais Palmer is a wide receiver out of North Carolina State that brings an intriguing skill set as an undrafted player.

Besides the obvious measure of speed, Tobais Palmer scored well in the reliance and production metrics at wide receiver.  He also gets a boost due to what he can provide as a kick returner.  He was not a punt returner in college, but may be worth a look at the position as well.  He has the analytical profile to be able to stick on a roster despite going undrafted.  He is certainly an arbitrage signing based on his profile makeup, and should push for playing time down the line as he develops.  While he develops, he can provide special teams value.

Filed Under: Cornerbacks (CB), Football Analytics, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kick Returners (KR), NFL Draft, Punt Returners (PR), Wide Receivers (WR)

The San Francisco 49ers And The Selection Of Quinton Patton

June 21, 2013 by

WR Quinton Patton arrived in San Francisco after buying his own ticket to fly from Nashville.  Had he actually arrived and entered the team facility too soon, he would have forfeited his rights to participate at rookie minicamp.  Despite demonstrating such an enthusiasm to get started, it was only the starting point to the question: what is his picture for long term success?

And this wide receiver out of Louisiana Tech, WR Quinton Patton has a good analytical profile for success.  This included a strong reliance metric score as well as a strong production metric score.  Meanwhile, 2012 draft pick WR A.J. Jenkins had an analytical profile with much higher risk for long term success despite stronger physical measures when he entered the league.  NFL Data Consultants predicts that WR Quinton Patton will become a better wide receiver prospect than first round pick WR A.J. Jenkins.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, NFL Draft, San Francisco 49ers, Wide Receivers (WR)

Post NFL Draft Analysis: The New England Patriots WRs

May 2, 2013 by

The 2013 NFL Draft has come and gone and the New England Patriots decided to attempt to break their trend of drafting ineffective Wide Receivers.  The original article can be found here:  The Patriot Way and Wide Receiver Evaluation

Typically a player is challenged with tougher competition, but not always.  And the utilization of a player in easier versus more challenging games provides another measurable view on a Wide Receiver.   These things bring into light three proprietary metrics, known as Competition, Reliance, and Challenge, isolated towards the player to provide a clearer picture of their on the field production and what their college coaches really thought of them.  It also helps identify system players versus players that would likely succeed outside of their system.

Using these measures along with other analytics and science, it is a good bet that the Patriots broke their string of bad WR selections when they selected WR Josh Boyce with the 102nd pick in the 2013 NFL Draft.  Boyce was an arbitrage selection, one which will pay off in the long term.  In the games measured, his competition score was just shy of the top 10% of all WRs historically in the system, and his challenge score indicates he was challenged heavily on his way to a high Wide Receiver production score.  His reliance score was neutral, showing that there were no major red flags in the production.  This combined with his physical measures profile a WR with a high likelihood for success.

The New England Patriots did take a WR earlier in the draft with the 60th pick in WR Aaron Dobson, and while he has a solid production score, it was about 10% lower than Boyce’s score and Dobson faced weaker competition and it was just as much of a challenge for Dobson.  Thus, it is a red flag for when his challenge level is raised.   Physically, he has a good skill set, but so did a few other Wide Receivers the Patriots have busted on in the past.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, New England Patriots, NFL Draft, Scouting Department, Wide Receivers (WR)

San Francisco 49ers: Pro Football’s Gold Standard

March 16, 2013 by

NFL Free Agency is a firestorm for creating football discussion.  It garners the majority of attention, while often the true mechanisms of winning go unnoticed.  One such organization that has taken steps necessary to be an elite organization is the San Francisco 49ers.

On March 1, the San Francisco 49ers announced a partnership with SAP, becoming the first NFL organization to partner with big data to improve inefficiencies in their system.  More importantly, it provides a measuring stick, and this system provides it on the fly.  Every other organization that has not embraced this system or something very similar has no chance  for success in a league built on parity and difficult financial decisions.  The longer organizations wait to embrace analytical based systems, the wider the gap will grow between have and have-nots.

The Baltimore Ravens punctuated this further by bringing home a Super Bowl trophy.   They are one of the few NFL organizations with an analytical department.  The parity environment that the NFL has setup is one that manifests a snowball effect.  For every personnel decision that is above the league average success rate, it will create winning momentum.  Success percentage over the league average provides the ability to play with house money.  Every organization that is below the league average in success percentage is handing over wins to those willing to take them.

To highlight a recent example, lets compare two personnel decisions.  One of these decisions is a great decision because it has a high probability of returning success.  The other decision has a low probability of success.

Transaction 1: The San Francisco 49ers acquire Aquan Boldin from the Baltimore Ravens for a 6th round pick and pay him $6 million.

Transaction 2: The Miami Dolphins sign Brian Hartline to a 5 year deal valued at $30.775 million, including $12.5 million guaranteed.  It is an amazing figure for a player that was the #1 WR a year ago yet only scored 1 TD.  There are four years of data to also demonstrate that the 1 was not an aberration.  It was his season total in three of four seasons.

Boldin equaled or bettered the number in 10 of his 10 seasons in the league and has scored 7 or more TDs in half of his 10  seasons.  Boldin is an investment in winning while Hartline is just an investment in a player that plays wide receiver.  As long as Miami makes personnel decisions with no fruit in winning, they will be handing over wins to organizations willing to take them, like the San Francisco 49ers.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Scouting Department, Wide Receivers (WR)