Football Analysis – Post NFL Week 2 Notes

September 22, 2013 by

Two weeks and a Week 3 NFL Thursday Night game into the season, and NFL Data Consultants has notes and analysis on trades, NFL personnel decisions, and a review of some of the analytical predictions made regarding the careers of some NFL players.

  • Rarely do we see trades after only two weeks of the NFL season, but we saw a big one between the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts. The Indianapolis Colts acquired RB Trent Richardson for a 2014 1st round draft pick. There has been much debate as to who won this trade, but that cannot be known until the Cleveland Browns make a selection with the draft pick or use it in a trade. A simple way to evaluate a trade is to look at how it will affect Quarterback Rating differential for the organization. QB Andrew Luck is sitting at a career QB Rating of 78.4 after two weeks in the 2013 NFL season. Despite all the accolades he has received, his Quarterback Rating is below the standard necessary to sustain winning long term. The question then becomes is how much will his own development plus the benefit of the running game boost his Quarterback Rating. The barrier that needs to be surpassed is a QB Rating just over 90 since that is what the Indianapolis Colts defense has given up with Andrew Luck at Quarterback. For the Cleveland Browns, the team Quarterback Rating since the start of the 2012 season has been among the worst in the league at just above 70. The biggest key to having a positive Quarterback Rating differential will be at Quarterback, and thus whether this trade was good for them will be based on how they use the pick to improve the Team QB Rating offensively. Expect an analytical review of the Indianapolis Colts side of this trade after the season is completed.
  • After consecutive weeks of baffling gameday roster management by the Philadelphia Eagles, they finally let DE Vinny Curry play. He only played 12 snaps, but his first three snaps netted the following results: a sack, a Quarterback hit and errant throw that was nearly intercepted, and a holding penalty by the offensive lineman trying to block him. NFL Data Consultants projected him as a 45-12 (tackles-sacks) type of DE when he came out, and he needs to be on the field as often as possible.
  • While we are talking about the Philadelphia Eagles, QB Michael Vick may in the process of showing signs of a regression to the mean as a passer with a 49.4 QB Rating in Week 3 against the Kansas City Chiefs. His QB Rating on the season still remains at 96, and what he has been able to do for the run game remains a bright spot.
  • Washington Redskins TE Jordan Reed continues to progress and see a steady diet of snaps at Tight End. In Week 1, he had 24 snaps, and followed that up with 26 snaps in Week 2. On the season, he has 8 catches, 56 yards, and a touchdown.
  • WR Quinton Patton of the San Francisco 49ers has not yet made an NFL reception, playing only on 13 pass snaps. While the Seattle Seahawks CB Richard Sherman was manhandling WR Anquan Boldin, the San Francisco 49ers lacked answers in the passing game. A solution to the problems exists on their own roster, but he needs more snaps on pass plays to make a difference.
  • Only four linebackers on the New England Patriots roster have logged snaps in the first two weeks. The only one without a negative grade by Pro Football Focus is LB Jamie Collins. However, Collins has only been on the field for 6 snaps, but should see increased playing time as long as continues to develop mentally.
Filed Under: 3-4 Defensive Ends (DE), 4-3 Strongside Linebackers (SLB), 4-3 Weakside Linebackers (WLB), Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Football Analytics, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Quaterbacks (QB), Running Backs (RB), San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Tight Ends (TE), Washington Redskins, Wide Receivers (WR)

NFL 2013 Preseason Week 2 Football Notes

August 23, 2013 by

Notes and Updates as it pertains to Week 2 of the 2013 NFL Preseason is below:

  • Michael Vick has won the starting job in Philadelphia. He has played tremendous this preseason and if going by the short sample, he is the logical choice. Vick has a tendency of turning the football over, and it is likely that a bigger sample size will bear that out. Luckily for the Philadelphia Eagles, they are deep in Quarterback options if the turnover trend emerges during the season.
  • TE Ladarius Green caught 5 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. He has Wide Receiver like potential out of the Tight End position, and just needs the right scheme to fit. With the San Diego Chargers struggling to keep WRs healthy, perhaps Ladarius Green will be able to carve more of a Wide Receiver like role even with a healthy Antonio Gates.
  • The New York Jets have to be concerned right now regarding with the Quarterback situation. Mark Sanchez has continued the 1:1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions throughout the preseason. He has proven what he is. Geno Smith did not play after an injuring his ankle and having brutal practices. It is sort of like the quote, “It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt.” While Geno Smith is sidelined, he isn’t able to remove all doubt that he is not the long term answer at Quarterback for the New York Jets. Geno Smith is slated to start at QB for the New York Jets in Preseason Week 3.
  • It had to be nearly impossible for the St. Louis Rams to evaluate their second team wide receivers properly with the play of QB Kellen Clemens; WR Stedman Bailey was among this group that had little chance to be evaluated. Kellen Clemens provided a brutal Quarterback outing as he lived on the a rule of 2s; he threw 2 over the head of Bailey,completed 2 of his eleven passes, and then threw 2 interceptions. Quarterback is a difficult position to find and upgrade. Perhaps they could find an upgrade since there are 2 third string Quarterbacks that NDC analytics grades to have a good rate of success.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers Strong Safety Shamarko Thomas led the team in tackles, providing 4 solo tackles and 2 assists. He also forced a fumble that led to a turnover. He clearly demonstrated the skills of a successful Strong Safety.
  • While the Denver Broncos were getting beat like a drum by the Seattle Seahawks, the battle at running back raged on. RB Ronnie Hillman had 13 carries for 34 yards, and he turned the ball over with a fumble. A turnover and an average yards per carry of under 3 yards is going to make it tough to not hand the ball to RB Montee Ball; Ball had 6 carries for 28 yards, an average of 4.66 yards per carry. Analytically, it is clear that Montee Ball is the better ball carrier, but he did miss a blitz assignment that led to QB Peyton Manning being hit. The only thing that can keep him off the field is himself; it is based on his determination to learn and execute his pass block assignments. He has the skill set to be a successful runner in the NFL.
  • WR Quinton Patton of the San Francisco 49ers has yet to play this preseason due to a fractured finger. Now that it has healed and he has been cleard to catch passes, he should be available for evaluation in NFL Preseason Week 3 or Week 4. The San Francisco 49ers are clearly searching for answers at wide receiver as seen by the trading WR A.J. Jenkins to the Kansas City Chiefs for WR Jon Baldwin. Just like Jenkins, Baldwin has an analytical profile that suggests a high risk of failing.
Filed Under: Denver Broncos, Football Analytics, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Quaterbacks (QB), Running Backs (RB), San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Strong Safeties (SS), Tight Ends (TE), Wide Receivers (WR)

The Kansas City Chiefs, TE Travis Kelce, And Deja Vu

June 23, 2013 by

The Kansas City Chiefs selected TE Travis Kelce with the pick number 63 overall in the 3rd round of the 2013 NFL Draft.  So why images of deja vu and groundhog day?  Well, it all traces back to his comparative analytics profile and on the other end of it is TE Tony Moeaki, currently also on the Kansas City Chiefs roster as a 2010 draft selection in the 3rd round.

Tony Moeaki has battled injury throughout his career, including missing the entire 2011 season.  Travis Kelce steps in as a younger, longer term viable option at Tight End and an insurance policy if Moeaki is not ready for training camp.  It was a good selection by the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2013 NFL Draft for the short and long term.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, Kansas City Chiefs, NFL Draft, Tight Ends (TE)

The Flying-20 On Trial: An Indicator Of Success For Wide Receivers?

December 29, 2012 by

At the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in 2012, an executive for the 49ers, Parag Marathe,  brought up a metric called the Flying-20.  This is the last 20 yards of a 40 yard dash.  He exclaimed that it is a metric that can be used to predict success, citing Jerry Rice as the example.  Whether Jerry Rice had a fantastic Flying-20 or not is irrelevant in this study.  What is on trial is the validity of the Flying-20 by looking at some of the best Flying-20 scores over the last few years.

 

Flying-20: 1.71

WR A.J. Love and WR Rondel Menendez

Undrafted out of South Florida, Love was waived twice by the Vikings this offseason and failed to catch a pass in preseason.

Menendez (Eastern Kentucky) had a leg up on Love in that he was drafted at #247 in the 1999 draft by the Atlanta Falcons.  Even so, Menendez never had a reception.

Flying-20: 1.72

Tyrone Calico and Eron Riley

Calico ran a tremendous 4.34 out of Middle Tennessee State and was drafted by the Titans in the 2nd round of the 2003 draft.  He played in 27 games, starting 8 and netting 42 catches for 501 yards and 4 TDs.  I would say that it was mighty fine production from a 2nd round pick with such a good Flying-20 score, but I don’t have a sarcasm font available to me.

Eron Riley was undrafted out of Duke and signed with the Ravens after the 2009 draft.  He never played a game for them, lasted 5 days with his next team the Panthers, spent a little time on the Broncos practice squad, and was released in December of 2011 by the Jets.  Just like the WRs with 1.71 Flying-20 scores, Riley does not have an NFL reception.

Flying-20: 1.73

Jeris McIntyre

McIntyre was selected in the 6th round in the 2004 draft by the Kansas City Chiefs after playing college ball at Auburn.  His Flying-20 score and SEC roots were not enough to net him any catches at the NFL level.

We have just looked at the five fastest Flying-20 scores in my database and among the 5 WRs, the average NFL stats are 8.4 receptions, 100.2 yards, and .8 TDs.  That is not a per game stat… that is a per career stat.

Flying-20: 1.74

Trindon Holliday, Ben Obamanu, and Isaiah Jackson

Another SEC player, Trindon Holliday was taken in the 6th round of the 2010 draft by the Houston Texans.  He has shown some dynamic return ability, but he has 6 fumbles to 2 receptions in his career.

Ben Obomanu was a 7th round pick in the 2006 draft by the Seahawks after playing his college ball at Auburn.  In five seasons, he has 87 career receptions for 1,209 yards and 7 TDs.

Isaiah Jackson was undrafted in 2012 out of Central Arkansas.  Although he did put up great workout numbers in his Pro Day, Jackson has not garnered much attention.

Flying-20: 1.75

Darrius Heyward Bey, Troy Williamson, and D’Andre Goodwin

Heyward-Bey was taken 7th overall in the 2009 draft by the Oakland Raiders after playing his college ball at Maryland.  Taken this high, and with one of the best Flying-20 scores, he has to be a shoe-in for success, right?  In 4 seasons, he has caught 140 passes for 2071 yards, and 11 TDs.  That turns out to be 2.5 catches and 37 yards per game.  I am starting to wonder if Marathe was just trying to bait teams into taking the high Flying-20 WRs if they didn’t do their homework.

Troy Williamson was also taken 7th overall in the 2005 draft by the Minnesota Vikings.  He lasted 3 seasons with the Vikings before being traded for a 6th round pick and played 10 games for the Jaguars, netting 8 receptions.  In all, Williamson had 87 catches for 1,131 yards and 4 TDs.

Goodwin went undrafted after the 2011 draft and has yet to catch a pass.  Do you think he is the one likely to break this trend?

In Conclusion:

Now that we have looked at the top 11 Flying-20 scores in recent years, and have very little to show for it, one must be highly skeptical that the Flying-20 is a legitimate metric to evaluate WRs.  In fact, you would have to go 13 deep before you found a WR that made a Pro Bowl roster.  That was Devin Hester, and he made it as a return man.  There is an answer on how to find quality WRs at a fraction of the cost, but it does not appear to be the Flying-20.

Filed Under: Atlanta Falcons, Core Principle Articles, Denver Broncos, Football Analytics, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, NFL Draft, Oakland Raiders, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans, Wide Receivers (WR)