NFL 2013 Preseason Week 3 Football Notes

August 25, 2013 by

Notes and Updates from Week 3 of the 2013 NFL Preseason are below:

  • As mentioned in the NFL Preseason Week 2 Notes, Michael Vick had played excellent football in the short sample size, but had mixed results when given a larger sample. QB Nick Foles is probably the first Quarterback in history to lose a QB job with an 84% completion percentage with a  QB Rating. Bill Parcells was once quoted, “You all act like you can dial 1-800 and get a quarterback.” To that, I say he is literally correct. Right now, that phone number starts with a Philadelphia area code.
  • So who was the highest graded offensive player by Pro Football Focus for the Green Bay Packers in the third preseason game? It was none other than RB Alex Green, who had 2 carries for 31 yards and finally showed the burst that makes him an NFL Data Consultants favorite. He is in a crowded backfield now, but there is no doubt he can play and be an effective running back when healthy. With RB Johnathan Franklin ineffective and RB DuJuan Harris battling a knee injury, the door is opening for Alex Green.
  • New York Jets Quarterback Geno Smith finally got back on the field after returning from an ankle injury. The quote in my Preseason Week 2 Notes says it all. QB Geno Smith threw three interceptions and accounted for a safety by running through the back of the endzone. To top that off, QB Mark Sanchez entered the game in the 4th quarter behind a backup offensive line and injured his right shoulder. The New York Jets is an organization in disarray, and the only way out of that is to take a long term analytical approach.
  • Unfortunately for the Arizona Cardinals, OG Jonathan Cooper is going to be potentially out for the season. Guard is a position of lesser value, but what how can this injury affect QB Carson Palmer? Remember pressure on the Quarterback will drop the QB Rating by 25% or more.
  • QB Mike Glennon of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers demonstrated the Jekyll and Hyde persona of his analytical profile. He completed only 3 of 9 passes for 44 yards, but had a TD and no interceptions.
  • Defensive End Margus Hunt delivered his first preseason sack for the Cincinnati Bengals. Hunt also had two solo tackles, an assist, and a tackle for loss. With DE Michael Johnson playing the season on a franchise tag, DE Margus Hunt is likely going to be filling the position next year so he needs to develop and be ready by year two. Relatively new to the game of football, he still has a way to go in development; however, the ceiling remains high.
  • TE Luke Willson continues to run with the Seattle Seahawks first team offense. Willson had 2 receptions for 21 yards and continues to make rapid improvement, especially in his run blocking.  He will continue to make it difficult for the Seattle Seahawks Coaching Staff to get keep him off of the field.
  • Denver Broncos RB Montee Ball showed more of why he should get more opportunity over Ronnie Hillman at running back. Ball had 70 total yards, 43 rushing and 27 receiving and added a touchdown. Ronnie Hillman had 6 carries for 34 yards, but once again turned the football over with a fumble.
  • WR Quinton Patton made his first preseason appearance, which was referenced in the NFL Preseason Week 2 Notes. Patton led the San Francisco 49ers in receptions and receiving yards, catching 4 passes for 35 yards. For having a road bump in his rookie year development due to a fractured finger, the prediction that WR Quinton Patton would be better than A.J. Jenkins is practically in the bag after A.J. Jenkins had a horrific offseason and was traded away. Patton remains destined for a good future at wide receiver.
Filed Under: 4-3 Defensive Ends (DE), Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Coaching Staff, Denver Broncos, Football Analytics, Green Bay Packers, New York Jets, Offensive Guards (OG), Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Quaterbacks (QB), Running Backs (RB), San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Strong Safeties (SS), Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tight Ends (TE), Washington Redskins, Wide Receivers (WR)

NFL 2013 Preseason Week 2 Football Notes

August 23, 2013 by

Notes and Updates as it pertains to Week 2 of the 2013 NFL Preseason is below:

  • Michael Vick has won the starting job in Philadelphia. He has played tremendous this preseason and if going by the short sample, he is the logical choice. Vick has a tendency of turning the football over, and it is likely that a bigger sample size will bear that out. Luckily for the Philadelphia Eagles, they are deep in Quarterback options if the turnover trend emerges during the season.
  • TE Ladarius Green caught 5 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. He has Wide Receiver like potential out of the Tight End position, and just needs the right scheme to fit. With the San Diego Chargers struggling to keep WRs healthy, perhaps Ladarius Green will be able to carve more of a Wide Receiver like role even with a healthy Antonio Gates.
  • The New York Jets have to be concerned right now regarding with the Quarterback situation. Mark Sanchez has continued the 1:1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions throughout the preseason. He has proven what he is. Geno Smith did not play after an injuring his ankle and having brutal practices. It is sort of like the quote, “It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt.” While Geno Smith is sidelined, he isn’t able to remove all doubt that he is not the long term answer at Quarterback for the New York Jets. Geno Smith is slated to start at QB for the New York Jets in Preseason Week 3.
  • It had to be nearly impossible for the St. Louis Rams to evaluate their second team wide receivers properly with the play of QB Kellen Clemens; WR Stedman Bailey was among this group that had little chance to be evaluated. Kellen Clemens provided a brutal Quarterback outing as he lived on the a rule of 2s; he threw 2 over the head of Bailey,completed 2 of his eleven passes, and then threw 2 interceptions. Quarterback is a difficult position to find and upgrade. Perhaps they could find an upgrade since there are 2 third string Quarterbacks that NDC analytics grades to have a good rate of success.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers Strong Safety Shamarko Thomas led the team in tackles, providing 4 solo tackles and 2 assists. He also forced a fumble that led to a turnover. He clearly demonstrated the skills of a successful Strong Safety.
  • While the Denver Broncos were getting beat like a drum by the Seattle Seahawks, the battle at running back raged on. RB Ronnie Hillman had 13 carries for 34 yards, and he turned the ball over with a fumble. A turnover and an average yards per carry of under 3 yards is going to make it tough to not hand the ball to RB Montee Ball; Ball had 6 carries for 28 yards, an average of 4.66 yards per carry. Analytically, it is clear that Montee Ball is the better ball carrier, but he did miss a blitz assignment that led to QB Peyton Manning being hit. The only thing that can keep him off the field is himself; it is based on his determination to learn and execute his pass block assignments. He has the skill set to be a successful runner in the NFL.
  • WR Quinton Patton of the San Francisco 49ers has yet to play this preseason due to a fractured finger. Now that it has healed and he has been cleard to catch passes, he should be available for evaluation in NFL Preseason Week 3 or Week 4. The San Francisco 49ers are clearly searching for answers at wide receiver as seen by the trading WR A.J. Jenkins to the Kansas City Chiefs for WR Jon Baldwin. Just like Jenkins, Baldwin has an analytical profile that suggests a high risk of failing.
Filed Under: Denver Broncos, Football Analytics, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Quaterbacks (QB), Running Backs (RB), San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Strong Safeties (SS), Tight Ends (TE), Wide Receivers (WR)

NFL 2013 Preseason Week 1 Notes and Updates, Volume 2

August 15, 2013 by

Volume 2 of Notes and Updates as it pertains to Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason is below:

  • Reports out of the St. Louis Rams camp continue to remain very positive on WR Stedman Bailey. Below is a quote from ESPN’s NFC West Blog, written by Nick Wagoner: “Rookie receiver Stedman Bailey had another strong practice in what is now turning into a long line of them. He was essentially perfect in one-on-one drills and continued to get open and catch everything thrown his way in team drills. It remains to be seen if he can do it against the top corners but he’s having his way with the backups on a regular basis.” NFL Data Consultants has also confirmed this report with a league source.
  • Quarterback Matt Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles posted a 78.4 Quarterback Rating in his NFL preseason debut, completing 11 of 22 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown. Despite the struggles he had, he did not turn the ball over and he improved as the game went on, especially in the no huddle offense.
  • In the derby to start at Quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles, Nick Foles completed 5 of 6 passes for 43 yards and posted a QB Rating of over 100. His true test will come in NFL Preaseason Week 2, as he will be starting.  Michael Vick had a great outing with his 5 attempts, yet 5 attempts by Michael Vick and 6 attempts by Nick Foles is too small of a data sample to make any sound conclusions.
  • Seattle Seahawks Tight End Luke Willson got the start in place of the injured Zach Miller and caught 2 passes for 16 yards. Head Coach Pete Carroll stated that the rookie TE is having a great camp. His blocking continues to improve.
  • Buffalo Bills WR Robert Woods started at Wide Receiver in the preseason opener, where he caught 4 balls for 32 yards. Buffalo Bills General Manager Doug Whaley quoted the following regarding Robert Woods: “When he came into OTAs and even out here for training camp, he looks like a 10-year veteran. That’s exactly what we thought of him: Polished.”

This concludes the updates on Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason

Filed Under: Buffalo Bills, Football Analytics, Philadelphia Eagles, Quaterbacks (QB), St. Louis Rams, Tight Ends (TE), Wide Receivers (WR)

What To Make Of The Philadelphia Eagles Draft Selection Of QB Matt Barkley?

July 19, 2013 by

When the Philadelphia Eagles traded up to the first pick in the 4th round to select QB Matt Barkley, what did they know that all other teams did not?  Head Coach Chip Kelly is known for being an outside the box thinker, and if that translates to good personnel decisions, it will be great for the Philadelphia Eagles fan base.  Matt Barkley’s Quarterback analyical profile was the best in this class according to NFL Data Consultants.

Yes, it is the human bias in us all that would have to do a double take on a USC Quarterback.  My own human bias had me do a study comparison of him versus the other previous USC Quarterbacks, and there are some things that clearly demonstrate that he is different.  Even though he is NFL Data Consultants best Quarterback of the 2013 NFL Draft class, he may not even the best long term QB on his own roster.  Nick Foles was a Quarterback that I was very high on after an analysis that I did last year comparing him to an elite NFL QB; while he did not get a benefit that the comparison QB did, the other side of that comparison remains incomplete for now.  Regardless, the sooner that the Philadelphia Eagles move on from turnover king, Michael Vick, the better it will be long term for this organization.

Although the analysis is incomplete on Nick Foles, it is interesting to note the following quote from Reuben Frank of CSNPhilly.com: “Foles last year became the first rookie in NFL history to throw for at least 240 yards per game while completing 60 percent of his passes.” Both young QBs compare to Pro Bowl Quarterbacks and the position looks bright for the Philadelphia Eagles for the long term.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Head Coaches (HC), NFL Draft, Philadelphia Eagles, Quaterbacks (QB)

The Green Bay Packers and the Alex Green Effect

June 16, 2013 by

Alex Green continues to be an intriguing running back for NFL Data Consultants due to his analytical profile.  Remember, one of our key objectives is to measure and predict the careers of players as they enter the NFL.  Unfortunately, Alex Green has been battling a knee injury that he suffered in his rookie year.  It is one that typically takes 2 years to fully heal.

In 2012, a picture of how a potentially healthy Alex Green would project became available since he was the comparable for RB Bryce Brown of the Philadelphia Eagles.  Bryce Brown averaged a very good 4.9 yards per carry on 115 rush attempts, and Alex Green is on the plus side of the comparison between the two.  Even the qualitative measures for Alex Green are more favorable to that of Bryce Brown.

At Hawaii, Alex Green played in a very pass happy offense and still possessed a very strong analytical profile as a runner.  If healthy, Green is the best fit for an Aaron Rodgers offense predicated on the passing game and spreading out the defense.  They did draft Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin, but Lacy brings a different element and a healthy Green is a superior prospect to Franklin based on both the analytical profile and the comparisons.

At NFL Data Consultants, we take a holistic approach with comparative analysis because all elements are combined into a single framework.  NFL Data Consultants will be releasing a daily series on June 17 that will highlight the best decision each organization made with the 2013 draft and undrafted rookie signings.  The key is to feature one player from each organization that had a better analytical profile for success than the player’s market value (draft position) indicated.  The objective is to finish all 32 NFL Teams before the start of training camp when the pads go on.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, Green Bay Packers, NFL Draft, Philadelphia Eagles, Running Backs (RB), Scouting Department